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1.
Linear Regression
|
Investor/RT Tour
( more on Technical
Indicators )
Linear Regression
| The Formula
. . . |
. . .more
on Formulas |
| The least square method is
used to determine the best line to fit the series of data points.
The Standard Deviation is computes as follows:
- Sum the squares of the differences between the raw prices, and the linear regression line.
- Divide this sum by number of bars in the regression series data
range.
- Take the square root of the result, giving the standard deviation.
See Also...
...Linear Regression
Forecast / Bands
...Linear Regression Slope
...Linear Regression
Acceleration
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| |
| The
Presentation . . . |
. . . more
on Charts |
|

Above is a Daily Candlestick Chart of an DKWD
(D&K Healthcare Resources). The blue center line represents the
regression line, based on the preferences selected below. The
red lines represent channels based on the standard deviations
specified in the preferences below. |
| |
| The
Preferences . . . |
. . . more
on Preferences |
|
 |
-
Price - Price
data
to be used as input in calculating the regression line.
-
Pre-Smoothing Type
- Smoothing type used to pre-smooth data before performing
the regression.
-
Pre-Smoothing Period - Smoothing
Period used to pre-smooth data before performing
the regression.
-
Data Range - This
group box contains the options used to specify where the
regression analysis will begin and end.
-
Automated using the last X bars - This
option results in an automated moving regression line, always
using the most recent X bars.
-
From dd/mm/yy hh:mm:ss
to dd/mm/yy hh:mm:ss - This option allows
the user to specify a specific start and end point in time.
-
From dd/mm/yy hh:mm:ss
to Present - This option results is an automated moving
regression line, always beginning at a specific fixed starting
bar, and always ending at the most recent bar. The data
range will expand as time moves forward.
-
Standard Deviation(s) Above
- Number of standard deviations above the regression line
to draw a parallel channel line. (0 for no line)
You may specify multiple channel levels here, simply by comma
separating the values (eg. 1, 1.5, 2).
-
Standard Deviation(s) Below
- Number of standard deviations below the regression line
to draw a parallel channel line. (0 for no line) You
may specify multiple channel levels here, simply by comma
separating the values (eg. 1, 1.5, 2).
-
Raff Channels
- Developed by Gilbert Raff, this method finds the maximum distance between any closing price and the regression line. This distance is then used as the basis for the channels. The channels are drawn
parallel to the regression line, at a distance above and below the line equal to the maximum distance computed. The upper channel is then used for support, while the lower channel is used for resistance.
-
Extend Line to Present
- Check this box if you would like your regression line
(and channel lines if applicable) extended to the right of the
chart.
-
Regression Color
- Color and style of the regression line in the chart.
-
Channel Color - Color
and style of the channel line(s) in the chart.
|
| |
| The
Description . . . |
| Linear regression is a statistical tool
used to predict the future from past data, and commonly used to
determine when prices are overextended. The Investor/RT Linear
Regression tool uses a least square method to plot a
"best-fit" straight line through a series of data
points. The data points used as input can be any of the
following: Open, Close, High, Low, Hi+Lo/2, Hi+Lo+Cl/3,
OHLC/4, %Change, or Op+Cl/2. These data points can be
optionally pre-smoothed prior to construction of the best-fit
line. If no smoothing is desired, simply chose a smoothing
period of 1.
Several options exist for selecting the range of prices that will
be included in the regression analysis (Data Range). The first
option "Automated using the last X bars", results in an
automated moving regression line, always using the most recent X
bars. The second option, "From dd/mm/yy hh:mm:ss
to dd/mm/yy hh:mm:ss", allows the user to specify a
specific start and end point in time. The third option,
"From dd/mm/yy hh:mm:ss to Present", is another
automated moving regression line, always beginning at a specific
fixed starting bar, and always ending at the most recent bar.
The data range will expand as time moves forward.
Click the linear regression icon
in the charting toolbar to enable the linear regression drawing tool.
Mouse down in the window at the point you'd like to begin your
regression line. Hold your mouse button down while you drag the drawing tool between the two points of interest. When you release the mouse button Investor/RT draws the regression line. As an option, you may choose to draw straight band lines parallel to the regression line. The bands are drawn a user-specified distance above and below the regression line. The distance is specified by the user as the number of standard deviations away from the regression
line. You are not limited to drawing only one channel line above and below the linear regression line. You may specify multiple levels simply by separating them with a comma. For instance, you may have:
Standard Deviation(s) Above: 1, 1.5, 2
Standard Deviation(s) Below: 1, 1.5, 2
And three channels will be drawn, at 1, 1.5, and 2 standard deviations from the regression line respectively. The standard deviation value is computed using the same range of data values used in determining the regression line (Data Range).
The values specified in the preferences are multipliers of this
standard deviation value, used to compute the distance(s) of the
channels from the regression line.
If the Raff Channels checkbox is checked a different method will
be used to compute the bands. Developed by Gilbert Raff, this method finds the maximum distance between any closing price and the regression line. This distance is then used as the basis for the channels. The channels are drawn
parallel to the regression line, at a distance above and below the line equal to the maximum distance computed. The upper channel is then used for support, while the lower channel is used for resistance.
Again, you can specify multiple levels, separated by commas.
The levels will be used as multipliers of the standard Raff
channels. To simply draw the standard Raff channels, specify
multipliers of 1 for both the above and below channels.
The Linear Regression Study can optionally be extended to the
right with the "Extend Line to Present" option. This
will project the line forward to the right edge of the chart.
The begin and ending points of the trendline may still be clearly
seen as small dots in the line. These points can be dragged to
a new position in the price data. When a drag occurs, the
regression is recomputed and a new regression line is drawn
considering the new data range. When the "From dd/mm/yy
hh:mm:ss to Present" data range option is being used, then
only the begin point can be dragged to a new fixed location.
The begin point will then remain fixed while the end point will
adjust to the most current bar as new bars form.
The following approximations offer a few rules of thumb for using the standard deviation settings:
- Plus or minus one standard deviation takes in 68.3% of all expected outcomes (historical price moves)
- Plus or minus two standard deviations takes in 95.4% of all expected outcomes (historical price moves)
- Plus or minus three standard deviations takes in 99.7% of all expected outcomes (historical price moves)
For example, excursions of price more than 2 standard deviations above or below the regression line represent an unlikely event (less than 5% probable). Such excursions usually represent overbought or oversold conditions.
|
| Keyboard
Adjustment . . . |
The keyboard can be used to move the
Linear Regression Line endpoints to the right and left. First, click on the
chart. Then hit the tab key repeatedly until you notice your
Linear Regression line is selected. Then, press the
right or left arrow keys on your keyboard to move the entire
Regression line right or left one bar. To move the trendline up
or down, press the up and down arrows on the keyboard. If you would like to
move only the endpoint (rightmost), then hold down the Ctrl key while pressing
the right or left arrow keys. If you would like to move only
the beginning point, then hold down the Shift key while pressing the
right or left arrow keys. For more information on technical
indicator adjustment, click here.
|
| RTL
Token . . . LRF ( more
) |
It is recommended that the LRF token be
used to access the ending point of an automated regression line, or
optionally, a forecasted regression value, using the most recent X
bars. For more on the Linear Regression Study, click here.
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| User
Strategies . . . |
| |
|
|
TraderBambu |
02/21/02 |
Being a professional trader, I try to simplify my charts and only use the indicators that are simple and make sense. The Dynamic Regression Channel is one of the best out there. If you are an advanced options trader - you would know about standard deviation.
My setup is based on "Automated using last 100 bars". On the longer period charts (anything over
65 minutes) I have three regression channels with 2 Std Dev, 3 Std
Dev and 4 Std Dev (with different colors) distances. If a stock is pumped or dumped (panic buying or selling) the price can get to the 5
Std Dev area - so be careful before you want to go automatically against the herd at the 2
Std Dev level! (When in doubt, switch to a longer timeframe).
On quiet, non-volatile days (when nothing moves but I have to generate some performance), I set the
Std Dev at 1.2 and trade the QQQ on a 3 min. chart - it usually produces
a minimum of ten trades (longs/shorts) during the day with at least a dime in profits for each trade.
I also use IRT's scanning ability to find (in real time) symbols that are at certain
Std Dev distances - generating trading ideas. This approach has produced excellent results for me (just an idea: when a pumped stock is at 3
Std Dev distance on the WEEKLY chart - that is a golden opportunity to short it - while the herds are still buying like crazy. Recent example was buying tons of put options on INVN at the right time!)
The Dynamic Regression Channel is not a miracle indicator - but with the good understanding of how it works and with proper use it can certainly help the trader be on the right side!
Happy Trading!
TraderBambu
|
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|
|
Dan Clark |
02/22/02 |
| Daily
Chart of ELMX |
Linear
Regression Settings |
I use 6 automated LRCs on my daily and intraday charts (all timeframes). Actually that is two Linear Regression lines with different numbers of bars and pre-smoothing period. The first uses the last 55 bars (Pre-smoothing period of 3) and the second uses the last 233 bars (Pre-smoothing period of 13). All use the Least Square method on the Closing price. So, one regression of 55 bars and one of 233 bars, each with 1, 2 and 3 standard deviation channels. (Total of 6)
I adjust the colors so that the 55 bar Linear Regression line is a darker and stronger blue than the 233 bar LR line. The colors of the channels vary by the number of standard deviations, with the 1 std deviation line being the brightest, 2 std deviation line being dimmer, etc. As you can see, I keep the channel line colors the same between the 55 bar and the 233 bar channels. Simple things, but they help me keep track of which is which.
The LRCs do an very good job of identifying overbought and oversold points, and breakouts. Notice the EMLX action on 2/14 as it broke the lower 55-bar 1 std dev channel. On 2/15,the high of the day came back and touched the same channel line and dropped from there. Notice on the 20th, the low of the day bounced off of the lower 55-bar 3 std dev channel. Note that the pink line is the 200day EMA, which probably offered additional support.
Another major reason that I like LRCs in that they help me focus away from the traditional horizontal and vertical axis, and help me determine the trend of stock. With EMLX, although we have a lovely double top formation, it seems that (to me) that the break of the lower 55-bar 1 std dev channel (as an S/R line) would have been good indicator for short trade. (I was watching this one, but not trading it.)
I'd like to say that the LRC settings were my own great idea, but I got them from Michael at
Enthios.com.
I hope this is useful. Please feel free to point out any errors, omissions and/or enhancements.
Regards,
Dan.
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Michael Walker |
02/25/02 |
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I use linear regression in conjunction with
Bollinger bands - both 2 std deviations to identify tops and bottoms.
50 period automated 1 period pre-smoothing in a 2 minute S&P 500 chart. When price ,
Bollinger bands and regression channels all meet at the top or bottom of the chart and the price is overbought or oversold based on oscillators (unless a trending day) it's time to sell or buy..
Great for scalping futures. On a typical day it gives about 10 + opportunities each typically of 3 to 5 points. You can see how it called the top on Friday at 1095 (and my scan signal markers Stochastics and Stoch(cci) confirmed it. And it called a bottom as 1086 as the end of day.
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