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Indicator-A-Day
 24. Volume Breakdown
 23. PriceTime Cycles
 22. Trend Intensity Index
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Bollinger Bands
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Stochastics
 10. Statistics

   9. TLB Oscillator
   8. Weighted MA
   7. Exponential MA
   6. Moving Average
   5. Regression Review
   4. Reg Acceleration
   3. Regression Slope
   2. Regression Bands
   1. Linear Regression

 

Investor/RT Tour ( more on Technical Indicators )
Linear Regression Forecast
Linear Regression Bands
Linear Regression Oscillator

The Formula . . . 

. . .more on Formulas 

SmoothPrice = MA(PRICE, Z)
where
   Z = MA Period
(Note: If no smoothing is desired (just raw price), then an MA Period of 1 should be specified.  In this case, SmoothPrice will be the same as PRICE.)

Regression Band = Reg(SmoothPrice , X) + Slope * Y
where
   Z = MA Period
   X = Regression Period
   Y = Forecast Period (optional - can be 0)
   Slope = Slope of regression line

Upper Band = Regression Band + StdDev(SmoothPrice, X) * N
where
   N = Standard Deviation(s)
   X = Regression Period

Lower Band = Regression Band - StdDev(SmoothPrice, X) * N
where
   N = Standard Deviation(s)
   X = Regression Period

Linear Regression Oscillator
     = (Price - Regression Band) / StdDev(SmoothPrice, X)
where
   X = Regression Period

See Also...
   ...Linear Regression
   ...Linear Regression Slope
   ...Linear Regression Acceleration

 
The Presentation . . . 

. . . more on Charts 

Linear Regression Forecast

Above is a Daily Candlestick Chart of an Intel Corporation (INTC).  The Linear Regression Forecast (LRF) is drawn in black, with an upper 2 standard deviation band drawn in blue, and a lower band drawn in red.

 
The Preferences . . . 

. . . more on Preferences 

Linear Regression Forecast Preferences

  • Price - Price data to be used in computation.

  • MA Type - Type of smoothing to be applied prior to regression.

  • MA Period - Smoothing period to be used prior to regression.

  • Regression Period - Number of bars to be used in computing the regression line.

  • Forecast Period - The middle regression band can optionally be forecast into the future by a user specified number of bars.  If the forecast period is 0, no forecasting will occur.  If the forecast period is greater than 0, then the linear regression line (computed using the regression line) is projected forward to determine the regression value for that bar.

  • Regression Band - Middle band, determined by computing a regression line using current bar and previous X-1 bars (X being regression period), and projecting that line forward by Y bars (Y being forecast period), and then taking the endpoint of the line as the value.

  • Upper Band - Standard deviation band drawn above the regression line.  Uses the number of standard deviations specified below.  The standard deviation is computed over the regression period specified.

  • Lower Band - Standard deviation band below above the regression line.  Uses the number of standard deviations specified below.  The standard deviation is computed over the regression period specified.

  • Standard Deviation(s) - How many standard deviations from the middle regression band that the upper and lower bands will be drawn.

  • Linear Regression Oscillator - The Linear Regression Oscillator represents the number of standard deviations of current price from the linear regression line.  A more complete explanation can be found in the description below.

 
The Description . . .
The Linear Regression Forecast indicators optionally smoothes the price data, performs a regression on the result, forecasts the regression lines if desired, and then optionally creates standard deviations bands above and below the regression line.   First, the data, based on the price selected, is smoothed using the moving average period and type.  If you prefer no smoothing, choose a period of 1 here.  The resulting data is then used to form regression lines ending at each bar, using the regression period specified.  The values at each bar can optionally be forecasted values, determined by projecting the regression lines X bars into the future, X being the forecast period.  If X=0, then no forecasting will occur.  Standard deviation bands can then be drawn above and below the regression line, based on a number of standard deviations (standard deviation multiple) specified, and a standard deviation value computed using data in the the regression period range.

The name of this indicator is somewhat misleading, as forecasting is optional, and only a small part of what this indicator can do.  In its most basic form, with no smoothing (ma period of 1) and no forecasting (forecast period of 0), LRF simply gives the ending point of linear regression lines that ending at each bar, and using the regression period provide.  This option alone provides a nice moving average substitute, and is actually identical to the Least Square moving average type available in Investor/RT (add both to your chart and see).

A smoothing (MA) period, caused the data to be pre-smoothed, prior to performing any regression analysis or forecasting.  A forecast period takes the linear regression line ending at each point, and projects it forward X number of bars, X being the forecast period.  This projected value is then used as the LRF value for that bar.

The bands that are drawn use a standard deviation that changes over time.  The standard deviations are computed just as they are for the Linear Regression study.  The standard deviation multiplier specified in the preferences is multiplied by the standard deviation value to determine how far the bands will be drawn from the base line.

The Linear Regression Oscillator represents the number of standard deviations of current price from the linear regression line. A value of 2 means that price is currently 2 standard deviations above the linear regression line (using the regression period specified...ending on that bar). A value of -1.5 means price is currently 1 1/2 standard deviations below the regression line. This options has been added as a "Linear Regression Oscillator" checkbox to the LRF indicator. When drawn, reference lines are automatically drawn at -2, -1, 0, 1, and 2 standard deviations.  It is recommended that the Linear Regression Oscillator be drawn in a separate window pane from price data.  The Linear Regression Oscillator tells how far the current price has deviated from the regression trendline, in units of standard deviations, or how far the price has deviated from the general trend established by the regression analysis (using period specified).
 

 
RTL Token . . . LRF ( more )

All three line values can be accessed in RTL using the LRF token.  To access the middle regression band, check only the "Regression Band" checkbox (uncheck Upper and Lower Band).  To access the upper band, check only the "Upper Band" checkbox.  To access the lower band, check only the "Lower Band" checkbox.
 

Keyboard Adjustment . . .
The periods involved in the LRF indicator can be adjusted directly from they keyboard without opening up the preference window.  First, select the indicator, then use the up and down arrow keys to adjust the regression period up or down by 1.  To adjust the MA period, hold down the shift-key while hitting the up and down arrows.  To adjust the forecast period, hold down the ctrl-key while hitting the up and down arrow keys.  For more information on technical indicator adjustment, click here.
User Strategies . . . 
 
   Steven Kessler   02/22/02
    Chart Example - E-Mini 1-minute with Linear Regression Bands
 
I much prefer the LRF bands to Linear Regression bands because they stay put on the chart. I use a forecast of 0, a regression period of 100, and a MA period of 1 (no pre-smoothing) on 1-, 2-, 3-, and 5-minute charts of the ES to show probable support and resistance levels, along with pivot points and the usual recent highs and lows and fib retracements. In a directionless market like today the 1-minute 2 std dev bands are quite useful.
 
   Linn Software - Chad Payne   02/22/02
    Chart Example
 
You can create a custom indicator that will actually show you how many standard deviations (from the linear regression line) that the current prices is. This indicator will be positive when price is above the regression line, and negative prices is below. The screenshot shows the custom indicator and an example of it in action, drawn as a histogram in the lower window pane.... Here is the syntax of the custom indicator...

(CL - LRF) / STAT

LRF is setup with no smoothing (period = 1), no forecasting (period = 0), and a regression period of 13.....only checkbox that is checked is Regression Band...
STAT is setup as standard deviation on close of last 13 periods....

A value of -2.3 tells you that prices is currently 2.3 standard deviations below the regression line (that begins 13 bars back and ends on that bar)....
   Linn Software - Chad Payne   02/22/02
    Chart Example
 
Here is an example of using the Custom Indicator (mentioned in last email) within a PaintBar using Linear Regression Bands (built within the LRF)...

See screenshot.

This is a daily chart of MSFT... The bars are overlaid with LRF, using a period of 13, and 1.5 standard deviations. I have also added a Paint Bar indicator to the chart. The paint bar preferences shown...and is based on the custom indicator shown. LRFU is just the LRF token renamed...with only the "upper" band check. LRFL is LRF renamed, with just the lower band check. As you can see, bars are draw in black when they close above the upper band, and drawn in blue when they close below the lower band..